Dakota Ridge, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

266
FXUS65 KBOU 092330
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
530 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions for much of the plains ends
  this evening. Areas of elevated to critical possible through
  next weekend, mainly toward Saturday and Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather through Saturday, with
  high temperatures reaching near record levels Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures and a chance of showers for early next week,
  but odds of any significant precipitation remain quite low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Strong and gusty northwest winds are bringing critical fire
weather conditions to the plains this afternoon. Those winds will
fortunately decrease this evening with the loss of daytime heating
and mixing, and weakening pressure gradients. A weak backdoor cool
front or surge of high pressure will build across the plains
overnight into Thursday. No precipitation is expected, as the
airmass will remain dry and only a few mid/high clouds can be
expected. The mostly clear skies and lighter winds tonight will
support decent radiational cooling with lows settling into the 30s
over most of the plains. Highs on Thursday will benefit from
nearly full sunshine, but just a few degrees cooler than today.
Overall, a really nice spring day is shaping up for Thursday with
the sunshine and lighter winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Temperatures will be warmer Friday and Saturday, with breezy
southerly winds Friday and stronger southwest winds across most of
the area Saturday. There`s some question about the eastward extent
of the strong winds Saturday, as lee troughing may result in a
weaker pressure gradient towards the eastern border. Models are a
little faster with the trough and cold front, resulting in a
little cooler forecast for Sunday, but it will still be dry and
windy. All of this will present potential fire weather issues. NBM
is accepted through this period, except for lowering dew points on
Saturday. We may need a little more wind as well.

The tail end of the Sunday shortwave will drag a band of mid level moisture
across Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing a chance of light showers
in a still fairly dry environment. After that, the upper air
pattern becomes more uncertain, as well as potential forcing for
any convection. NBM keeps chance PoPs Monday afternoon when it
looks like the lift should be gone, but if there`s residual
moisture some diurnal convection is possible. Tuesday likely has
some ridging and drying between the Sunday trough and whatever is
coming at us from the southwest or northwest. Again, the overall
environment will likely be pretty dry, but a little pocket of
cooler air aloft and a little surface convergence is enough to
generate showers in our more springlike environment.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/...
Issued at 529 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Gusty NW winds will continue for another couple of hours before
quickly diminishing through the evening with a slightly northerly
shift. Overnight into Thu AM, winds will become light and rather
VRB, with east flow favored to develop mid-morning and continuing
through the PM.

All terminals will be VFR through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Ongoing critical fire weather conditions over the plains along
and north of I-70 will ease rather quickly this evening, with
winds gradually diminishing 6-8 pm.

On Thursday, lighter winds can be expected in all areas. It will
still be breezy over the far eastern plains, with elevated fire
weather conditions over Sedgwick and Phillips counties. However,
humidities should stay just above critical thresholds with
slightly cooler temperatures.

There could be localized elevated fire weather conditions in
South Park and the far northeastern plains on Friday. Relative
humidity values should reach down to the mid teens and wind gusts
up to 25 mph are possible. However, these conditions are expected
to be brief.

Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures 20+ degrees above normal are
possible for Saturday, with a dry air mass allowing humidity values
to dip to critical thresholds. Relative humidities are expected to
drop to around 10% with 40 mph wind gusts across the high country
and gusts up to 30 mph on the plains. On Sunday, relative humidity
values are expected to be around 15% with gusts to 50 mph across
the mountains and 40 mph on the plains.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ238>240-
242>246-248>251.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Rodriguez
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch/Gimmestad